美国商业房地产市场危机探析

Research on the company ’s strategic motives of intercorporate shareholding

2009年12月2日美联储发布的《当前经济形势》褐皮书指出,目前美国商业房地产市场"非常脆弱,在许多情况下正在恶化"[1]。目前美国金融市场仍处于非常脆弱的时期,商业地产市场规模之大以及普遍的高杠杆率现象使我们必须重视这个问题。本文分析了美国商业地产市场目前面临的主要问题,指出无法获得再融资将是其面临的最大困难,这将给美国刚企稳的银行体系带来新一轮冲击。而针对商业地产市场的问题,美国政府现有的对策显得疲乏无力,标准普尔公司修改CMBS债券评级方法事件的风波背后传递出的是该市场远未复苏的信号。最后,本文预测了美国商业地产市场未来的前景以及投资者在面对该市场时应该注意的问题。

In the ＂Current Economic Conditions＂ released by Federal Reserve on December 2, 2009, it says ＂Commercial real estate markets and construction activity were depicted as very weak and, in many cases, deteriorating.＂ The current U.S. financial market is still very fragile, the commercial real estate market is so huge and the high leverage ratio is so widespread that we have to pay our attention to it. In this paper, we analyze the main problems faced by the U.S. commercial real estate market, and point it out that being unable to obtain refinancing is the greatest difficulty currently, and it may assault the just stabilized banking system. Meanwhile, U.S. government＇ s countermeasures for this problem are not so effective. Standard ＆ Poor＇ s revising CMBS bonds rating system pass out the signal that the market is far from recovery. In the end, we forecast the future prospects of U.S. commercial real estate market and provide suggestions for investors when they dealing with this market.