互动行为与选民动机——一项关于选举的定量研究

Interaction and Motivation:A Quantitative Research on Voting Behavior

本文通过对北京市区县人大代表选举的一项调查数据分析,发现人大代表与选民的互动将会显著地影响到选民投票的积极型动机比例。因此,应当有制度保障来确保人大代表与选民之间的互动,以便提高选民的参选热情,使社会主义民主制度更趋完善。在方法上,本文揭示了在根据观察数据进行因果推论时普遍存在的"隐性偏误"问题,并介绍了一种解决办法,即基于"倾向得分"而进行的配对方法。

By analysing an survey data on voting deputies of for County People's Congress,we find that Interactions between representatives and voters have great influence on voting behavior of voters.The institutional arragement of assuring the interaction between representatives and voters is crutial.In methodology,hidden bias often cause misleading conclusion in causal deductions;the matching method based on propensity score is an ideal solution to this problem.