冬季气温急剧升、降日期与东北夏季低温的联系

Relationship between cold(warm) wave onset date and summer freezing damage in northeast China

利用通化市所属5个气象站1954--2006年日平均温度组成的区域平均时间序列资料、季平均温度资料，分析了短期气温的剧烈变化（本文称之为寒潮和气温骤升）与后期季温度异常的关系，结果发现，冬季短期气温的剧烈变化与后期春、夏季气温距平存在联系，表现在一些特定的寒潮（或气温骤升）爆发日期段总是与后期季的高或低温相对应。在一定的年代背景下，一些日期段还与极端季温度距平存在明显的联系。与后期气温异常联系明显的寒潮爆发、气温骤升日期段存在着周期性，与春季低温对应明显的寒潮爆发日期有5d的时间间隔；与春季低温对应明显的气温骤升的日期存在着9～11d的周期，且随着日期的变化，爆发日期之间的间隔有规律的延长和缩短。一些寒潮爆发和气温骤升日期与东北夏季低温冷害存在明显的联系。

The relationship between onset date of cold （warm） waves and later season temperature anomaly is studied by using 1954--2006 daily mean temperature time serial data from the regional average values of 5 weather stations of Tonghua city and season average temperature data from Tonghua weather station （41 °41＇N, 125°54＇E）. Evidence suggests that season temperature anomaly in spring and summer have obvious affiliation with onset dates of cold （warm） waves in last winter. It has been found that cold （warm） waves breaking out in certain date are corresponding to high （or low） season temperature. There were obvious relationship between some cold （warm） wave onset dates and extreme season temperature anomalies at late period. The relationship displayed periodicity, the cold wave dates that associated with low spring temperature anomaly show 5 d interval, the warm wave dates that associated with low spring temperature anomaly show 9-11 d interval that prolongs or shortens regularly. Some onset dates of cold（warm） waves in last winter have obvious affiliation with summer low temperature and cold damage in northeast China.