台风路径预报CLIPER模式及其在航海上的应用

根据对1949～1989年西北太平洋历史台风活动的气候和持续特征的统计分析,提出了在船舶航行条件下6—72小时、每隔6小时的台风路径预报的CLIPER模式。通过三年的实船试验与推广应用,表明该模式有一定的预报能力。并且预报业务系统操作方便和直观。这种方法是运用于航行船舶作台风路径预报的一种客观预报工具。

The CLIPER model of typhoon track forecast at 6h intervals and 6h-72h over the Northwestern Pacific for occasion of ships at sea was proposed, based on statistical analysis of climatological and persistent characteristics about historic typhoon activities between 1949 and 1989.The test and spread application to the neat ships for three years have shown that the model has certain forecast abilities and the forecasting system is characterzed by convenience in operation and straightforwardness in manipulation. The approach is qualified as an objective prediction tool for typhoon track forecast for ships in navigation.