贸易开放与金融开放的内在联系——基于PVAR模型的实证检验

On the Hidden Links between Trade and Financial Openness:An Empirical Test Based on a PVAR Model

对外开放包括贸易开放和金融开放两个维度,但是学者们一般将两者分开进行研究,对两者之间关系的研究则主要集中于贸易开放与金融开放的政策次序问题上。所以本文首先对贸易开放与金融开放之间的联系渠道做了简单的理论分析,然后利用43个国家1982—2003年的数据建立了包含贸易开放度和金融开放度两个变量的PVAR模型对两者之间的动态联系进行实证检验,检验的结果证实贸易开放对金融开放具有显著的正向影响,而金融开放对贸易开放没有显著的影响。但是,对于金融一体化程度不同的国家而言,这些结论并不一致。

（Economic） Openness includes trade openness and financial openness, and researchers always make research on them separately. Researches on the relationship between them mainly focus on the policy sequencing of them. So in this article the authors make a simple theoretical analysis on the hidden links between trade openness and financial openness, then construct a PVAR model including trade openness and financial openness based on the data of 43 countries from 1982 to 2003, and it concludes that trade openness has significant positive influence on financial openness, but financial openness has no significant influence on trade openness. But the conclusion would be influenced by financial integration level of different countries.