我国服务业“成本病”及其就业效应——基于鲍穆尔—富克斯假说的区域检验与比较

"Cost Disease" Problem in Service Industry and Its Effects on China's Employment:Regional Test and Comparison Based on Baumol-Fuchs Hypothesis

本文基于鲍穆尔—富克斯假说,通过对1978-2005年我国东、中、西部地区29省市的面板数据分析发现,除东部地区外,在我国大部分区域,服务业就业增长均是以其劳动生产率增长的相对滞后为代价,表现出"成本病"的征兆,这一问题可能会引起整体经济的通胀倾向与财政拖累,并对服务业自身发展造成不利影响。因此,当前应积极转换服务业发展机制,强化创新,推进服务业结构升级,在提高服务质量与劳动生产率的同时,进一步拓展服务业就业空间。

The panel- data analysis on the 1978 - 2005＇ s of China＇ s eastern, central as well as western regions indicates that, except the eastern area, in most areas of our country, the relative lagged increase of labor productivity is the main reason of the rising share of the employment in service industry, this conclusion favorably accords the Baumol- Fuchs hypothesis. The service industry of our country has been developing with the cost of relative delaying the productivity, the ＂cost disease＂ caused by this fact may result in the possibility of inflation and fiscal problem. Therefore, it is important for our country to reform the development mode of service industry and sufficiently explore the employment potential of the service industry while increasing the labor productivity.