高校科技产出与投入的灰色关联分析和趋势预测

Grey Correlative Analysis and Trend Forecast of College Sci-Tech Outputs and Inputs in China

利用灰色系统理论对我国高校发表科技论文数、高校专利产出数等高校科技产出指标进行了分析和未来5年高校科技活动的发展趋势进行了预测.结果显示:在高校发表科技论文方面,目前我国主要由科技活动人员投入推动的"粗放式经营"为主产出模式,未来5年这种状况将得到一定程度的改善;高校专利产出主要由科技经费投入决定,且未来5年科技经费内部支出分配在高校专利产出方面存在激励不足的问题更加突出.并指出了改变目前高等学校对教师职称职位评定的科研考核"一刀切"模式和加强高校科研经费管理工作特别是科技经费内部支出的管理工作等政策建议.

The grey system theory is adopted to analyze the number of sci - tech papers issued and patent output of colleges and universities in China, and to forecast sci - tech trends in the future five years. It is shown through the results that the number of sci - tech papers published is mainly promoted by the input of staff of sci - tech ac- tivities with ＂extensive operations＂, belonging to low level output modes, but in the future five years this situa- tion will be improved to a certain extent. Patent outputs are determined by inputs of sci - tech funds, and the problems of insufficient incentive of the allocation of internal expenditure of sci - tech funds will be more severe in the next five years. Some policy recommendations are finally put forward such as changing the ＂cut it even at one stroke＂ mode of title performance evaluation for college teachers, and strengthening scientific research funds management work, especially management of the internal expenditure of funds.