基于VAR模型的金融发展与经济增长的实证分析

Empirical Research on the Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth Based on a VAR Model

本文在VAR模型的基础上,采用我国年度数据,运用协整检验和ECM等方法分析后发现,长期内,金融发展阻碍经济增长,而通货膨胀促进经济增长。短期内,金融发展对经济增长影响不显著,通货膨胀对经济增长影响显著。金融发展与经济增长之间不存在任何方向的Granger因果关系,通货膨胀是经济增长的Granger原因,但经济增长不是通货膨胀的Granger原因。

Based on a VAR model, using such methods as Cointegration test and ECM model etc. with China＇ s annual data being employed, this paper analyzes the relationship between financial development and economic growth and finds that financial development hinders economic growth, but inflation is bene- ficial to economic growth in the long - time. Not financial development but inflation affects obviously eco- nomic growth in the short -time. There is no Granger causality between financial development and eco- nomic growth, and inflation is the Granger causality of economic growth, but economic growth is not the Granger causality of inflation.