改进AHP法在中长期负荷预测中的应用

The Application of Improved AHP Methods in Medium-long Term Load Forecasting

针对中长期负荷预测的特点以及传统层次分析法AHP的缺点,提出了一种改进的AHP法,此方法对AHP判断矩阵的比例标度进行了改进,使其更具合理性,并在中长期负荷预测应用中取得了较好的结果,该方法不仅基于科学计算,同时也考虑了专家经验,与传统的单一模型相比在预测精度上有了明显的提高。

An improved AHP method was proposed according to the characteristics of mid-long term load forecasting feathers and the shortcomings of traditional analysis methods. It has modified the proportion scale of judgment matrix, which has been proved more reasonable and get a better result in medium and long term forecasting. This method has consists of both the scientific calculation and the experiences of experts, the forecasting accuracy has improved compared with traditional single forecasting