基于SAS的非平稳时间序列分析及实证研究

Nonstationary Time Series Analysis and Case Study Based on SAS

采用季节指数趋势法,对具有季节变动的非平稳时间序列(以某电脑公司的实际季度销售记录为例),利用统计分析系统SAS进行分析,并对该公司2009年的销售情况进行了预测.与公司2009年度前三个季度的实际销售数据进行对比,拟合效果令人满意,证明该方法实用有效.

Seasonal index trend method is used to analyze the nonstationary lime series with the seasonal variation （a computer company＇s actual quarterly sales record） by the statistical analysis system, and its sales in 2009 is forecasted. Up to now, compared with the actual sales data of the year in the first three quarters, the fitting results are satisfactory, and the method is shown to be practical and effective.