摘要
如果汇率变动不传递给进出口价格,即使马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,汇率变动也不能影响进出口。本文通过将汇率变动对净出口的影响分解为汇率的价格效应和数量效应,在此基础上论证了汇率传递与马歇尔-勒纳条件的关系,重新构造了贸易收支改善的汇率弹性条件。然后用中国2005-2009年分类商品的月度面板数据估计了人民币名义汇率变动对中国各类商品进出口的价格效应、数量效应和贸易收支效应,以便理解近期人民币汇率升值影响中国贸易顺差持续扩大的过程和机制。
Even if Marshall-Lerner conditions are in effect, exchange rate changes can not affect import or export. Through decomposing the effects of exchange rate on net export into price effect and quantity effect, the paper testifies the relationship of exchange rate pass-through and Marshall-Lerner conditions, and deduced the conditions for trade balance improvement. The paper then uses the monthly panel-data of categorized goods during 2005-2009 to estimate the price effect, quantity effect and trade balance effect.
出处
《上海金融》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第2期63-70,共8页
Shanghai Finance
基金
上海市教委高水平特色发展项目"金融信用知识创新体系"
上海市教委创新项目的资助
