什邡50年气温变化特征及回归分析

The Characteristics of Temperature Variation and Regression Analysis in Shifang in the Past Fifty Years

利用什邡市1959-2008年逐日气温资料,采用一元线性回归及5年滑动平均,Mann-Kendall法(M-K)等方法,研究分析了什邡市50年来气温年际变化特征。结果显示:(1)气温以0.13℃/10a的趋势变暖,50年平均上升了0.6℃到0.7℃,其中四季存在显著差异,秋季变暖趋势最明显达0.21℃/10a,春季次之为0.13℃/10a,冬季为0.11℃/10a,夏季最不明显。(2)年平均气温在21世纪初期均有明显变暖突变。

Using temperature data of Shifang from 1959 to 2008 and using a linear regression and 5-year moving aver- age, Mann-Kendall method （M-K） etc, analyses are made on the past 50 years inter-annual variations in temperature characteristics. The results indicate： （1） The temperature increases by 0. 13℃ every decade, and 50 years rose by an average of 0.6℃ to 0.7℃, of which there were significant differences between the four seasons. The most obvious trend reaches to 0.21℃ every decade in the autumn; Spring follows by rising 0. 13℃ every decade, and 0.11℃ rising every decade in winter. Summer is insignificant. （2） The annual average temperature in the early 21st century has an obvious wanning mutation.