新疆对中亚国家出口贸易流量与潜力研究——基于引力模型的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Export-trade Flow and Potential of Xinjiang toward Central Asian Countries Based on Gravity Model

采用贸易引力模型对新疆向中亚国家的出口贸易流量进行实证分析,并测算新疆向中亚国家出口贸易潜力。实证分析的结果表明:新疆经济规模、距离、世贸组织、中亚国家的人均GDP、经济差异等因素对新疆向中亚国家出口贸易流量的影响显著;新疆向中亚部分国家的出口贸易出现贸易过度现象,但总体上还有很大的潜力可以挖掘。在此基础上提出提高新疆对中亚国家出口贸易水平的建议。

In this thesis,the gravity model wil be tised in demonstration analysis of the export trade flow for Xinjiang toward Central Asian Countries（CAC） and calculate the trade potential of it. The result of the demonstration analysis shows that the factors of Xinjiang＇s economic scale, distances, WTO,per GDP of the CAC and the different of economy have great influnces on the export trade flow for Xinjiang toward CAC. The export trade of Xinjiang toward CAC has been overtraded, however, still have great potential. So we put forward the advises to improve the standard of export trade of Xinjiang toward CAC based on it.