应用GM(1,1)模型预测辽阳市梅毒的流行趋势

Applying grey model to predict the incidence trend of syphilis in Liaoyang

目的探讨灰色预测模型GM(1,1)在时间序列资料中的应用,建立梅毒发病率的预测模型。方法利用2001年至2008年辽阳市梅毒发病率数据,确定GM(1,1)模型,并对今后2年辽阳市梅毒发病率进行预测。结果辽阳市梅毒发病率预测模型为^x(1)(k+1)=44.75e0.158k-38.42,预测值分别为:2009年为23.14/10万,2010年为27.12/10万。结论预测结果表明辽阳市梅毒发病呈上升趋势,应大力加强健康教育,治疗管理等综合防治措施控制梅毒的发病。

Objective To discuss the application of Grey Model（ 1,1 ） in the time series data to set up the prediction model for syphilis. Methods Grey model （ 1,1 ） was established by using the incidence data of syphilis of Liaoyang from 2001 to 2008, and predicted the incidence of syphilis of Liaoyang in the next 2 years. Results The prediction model was：x^^（1）（k＋1）=44.75e^0.158k-38.42, and the predicted values were 23.14 per100000 for 2009, 27.12 per 100000 for 2010. Conclusion The incidence rate of syphilis in Liaoyang has a rising tend, efforts should be taken to strengthen the comprehensive preventive measurement for syphilis such as health education, therapy management and so on.