中国东北地区森林覆被变化的原因与趋势

Causes and Trends of Forestry Area Change in Northeast China

以中国东北地区森林覆被变化为研究对象,构建了涵盖林业生产、疏林地向有林地转换和其他用地向有林地转换三个方程组成的计量经济模型,研究了自然环境条件和社会经济因素对森林覆被变化的驱动作用。在此基础上,应用土地系统动态(DLS)模拟系统预测了2000-2020年在环境保育情景、基准情景和发展优先情景下中国东北地区森林覆被变化的趋势。研究结果表明,自然环境条件是森林覆被变化的重要控制因素,对林业生产和林地面积转移有显著的制约作用;区位条件、退耕还林政策和天然林保护工程等社会经济因素也均在不同程度影响了东北地区森林覆被的变化。在2000-2020年间,东北地区林地面积整体将呈现增长态势。其中,有林地面积逐年增长,而疏林地和灌木林地均有所下降,其他林地变化幅度较小。本研究结论将为东北地区森林资源开发利用与保护、林业发展规划提供决策参考信息。

The Northeast China region is one of the areas covered by plenty of primeval forests. As an important region for ecological protection, it contributes a lot to the conservation of water resources and land, produces timber production and provides habitats for a huge number of wild animals and plants. With changes in socio-economic conditions as well as the geophysical environment, there are more and more severe decreasing trends of forestry area. Therefore, it is of significance to find the underlining reasons for the changes of forestry areas. To grasp the determinants of forestry area in Northeast China, we develop the econometric model with three equations identifying forest industrial production, conversion from sparse woodland to closed forest and conversion from non-forestry land uses to forestry area, and then explore the impacts on the changes of forestry area from such factors as demography, society, economy, location and geophysical conditions. On this basis, we employ Dynamics of Land System （DLS） simulation software to simulate land conversions between forestry area and non-forestry land uses and the land conversion inside forestry area for the period 2000-2020 under baseline scenario, environmental conservation scenario and development as the top priority. The research results show that forestry area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the secondary forestry classes, indicating that closed forest will expand continuously while sparse woodland and shrubs decrease a little bit, area of other forest uses will remain unchanged. The research results provide valuable information for decision-making in development and utilization of forest resources and forestry development plan in Northeast China.