中国经济转型成本的测度:1978～2007年

The Estimate of China's Economic Transition Costs 1978～2007

作为大规模制度变迁的经济转型,在取得收益的同时也必然付出一定的成本。中国经济转型30年来取得了巨大的成就,但随着中国经济向后转型时期的迈进,原来被推迟、忽略、潜伏的矛盾日益显现,经济转型成本激升成为目前不得不关注和需要着力解决的重要命题。本文在界定了经济转型成本的内涵和分析维度的基础上,通过设计经济转型成本的测度指标体系,采用AHP统计技术方法测度了1978～2007年中国经济转型成本的综合指数。在此基础上,结合使用HP滤波法、Fisher最优分割法,以及指数平滑法分析了30年来经济转型成本的变动趋势及阶段性变化特征,并对未来经济转型成本做出了预测。

As a large- scale institutional changes transiting from planned economy to market economy, it gets wins as well as pays costs. China achieves huge success from its economic transition in the past thirty years. However, those problems that were put off, ignored and hidden emerge gradually, which represents as proliferated economic transitional costs and appeals to reformers＇ attention. In this paper, the author definites the intension of economic transition costs at first, then devises the index system and use the AHP to measure the general index of economic transition costs from 1978 to 2007. Based on the general costs index, the author uses HP filter, Fisher optimal division and Exponential Smoothing methods respectively to analyses the fluctuation characters in trend, historical periods of economic transition costs, and forecast economic transition costs in the future years.