基于系统动力学的中国石油产量预测分析

Forecast and analysis of oil production in China based on system dynamics

根据系统动力学基本原理构建了中国石油产量预测的系统动力学模型,确定了剩余可采储量、采油速度等模型变量参数.预测结果显示:中国最终可采储量在123-143亿吨之间、平均值为134亿吨,中国石油产量已经进入高峰平台期,将在2015年左右迎来产量最高峰,峰值产量在1.92亿吨左右,未来石油储采比仍将缓慢下降,并将在2042年首次降到10年以下.

China＇s ultimate recoverable reserves which are the resource base affecting oil production are forecasted and analyzed; system dynamics model for oil production forecasting is built based on basic principles of system dynamics; and parameters of variables such as the oil recovery rate of remaining recoverable reserves in the model are determined. Forecast results show that the ultimate recoverable reserves of oil in China are between 123 and 143 million tons, and the average amount is 134 million tons. Furthermore, the oil production in China has entered the stage of plateau, and the peak production will be 192 million tons in around 2015. The future reserve/production ratio of oil will slowly decline, and it will be below 10 years in 2042 for the first time.