基于概率风险评估的舰船装备研制风险分析与决策

Risk analysis and decision making in ship research & design with probabilistic risk-based assessment

随着数字化造船技术的发展,在舰船装备研制过程中,对定量风险分析的需求越来越强烈。针对我国舰船装备系统复杂、研制周期长的特点,本文提出了一种基于全寿命周期数据管理(PLM/PDM)系统的风险管理和决策支持系统。并结合概率风险分析方法与定性风险分析方法在船舶系统应用的特点,在风险数据收集、风险模型和风险知识库建立及完善等几个方面进行了深入分析。

With the improvement of digital shipbuilding technology in China,quantitative risk analysis is urgently needed in the development of combat ship weapons.Aiming at the complexity of weapon system and the long circle of development,a PLM/PDM-based risk management and decision-making system is proposed.Combined with the features of ship probabilistic risk-based assessment and qualitative risk analysis in the application of probabilistic risk analysis（PRA） method,the difficulties in data collection,risk model and knowledge database foundation and refinement are put forwards.