城市化与农民工的贡献——后危机时期中国经济增长潜力的思考

How Migrant Workers Can Further Contribute to the Urbanization:Potentials of China's Growth in Post-crisis Era

金融危机时期农民工就业的调整过程和结果,进一步印证了中国经济发展阶段正在发生的重大变化,即刘易斯转折点已经到来,并显示出与这个新阶段相联系的劳动力市场特征,揭示出经济可持续增长面临的挑战。文章首先论证了农业不再是剩余劳动力的"蓄水池",因而农民进城打工已具有不可逆转性。文章还指出,剩余劳动力的减少意味着传统意义上的人口红利将逐渐消失,迫切需要发动经济增长的新引擎,即以农民工市民化为内涵的深度城市化。通过国际比较,文章论证了城市化作为新增长点的意义,对未来城市化的速度进行了判断,并澄清了城市化过程中土地扩张和人口增加的关系,进而论述了推进深度城市化战略的要点——新老居民获得均等的公共服务。

The labor market adjustment that migrant workers have conducted during the course of financial crisis and its result further convinces the ongoing Lewis turning point,which has not only changed the characteristics of the labor market but also challenged the sustainability of the economic growth in China. One of the new characteristics is that agriculture is no longer a pool of surplus labor force-that is,the process of rural-to-urban migration is irreversible. One of the challenges is that the reduction of rural surplus labor force and slower trend of migration imply the shrinkage of demographic dividend,and therefore a newsource is in great need for further economic growth. Such a source can be found and utilized in deepening a new pattern of urbanization that focuses on providing citizenship to migrant workers and their families. Through international comparison,this paper also discusses how such a new pattern of urbanization can serve as a new driver of economic growth,predicts the speed of urbanization,and clarifies the relationship between land expansion and population growth in urbanization. The paper gives great emphasis on creating an equalized access to public services for urban newcomers.