扩散波的时空反演与洪水实时预报技术

Inverse Operation of Time-Space and Real-time Flood Forecasting for Dispersive Wave

以扩散波方程描述天然河道中的洪水波运动规律，将数学物理反问题理论和离散反演算法与河道流量演算相结合，提出了扩散波实时预报的方法。该法的特点是在求解流量场Ｑ（ｘ，ｔ）的同时反演计算扩散波波速Ｃ（ｘ，ｔ）和扩散系数Ｄ（ｘ，ｔ），根据不断监测的新信息系列，直接利用原偏微分方程进行参数的实时校正和预报过程的实时修正。提出的扩散波时空反演分布参数和洪水实时预报技术在实时校正过程中，不必将原偏微分方程转换成常微分方程（如状态方程），克服了方程转换过程中非线性导致的计算困难和线性化带来的误差，为天然河道洪水作业预报开辟了另一条途径。

In this paper,a new dispersive wave real-time forecast method is presented,which describes law of flood wave motion in natural channel by dispersive wave equation,combines river channel flow routing with mathematics physics inverse problem theory and discrete inverse method.Its particular is that flow rate Q(x,t),dispersive wave velocity C(x,t)and diffusion coefficient D(x,t)are calculated in the same time.The real-time updating technique of parameters and forecast process is based on some new information acquired by monitoring.