辽宁省产业用水变化驱动效应分解与时空分异

Decomposition of driving effects for industrial water utilization change and spatial-temporal difference in Liaoning Province

辽宁省是我国严重缺水地区,水资源问题已经成为辽宁老工业基地振兴的瓶颈因素。通过构建产业用水变化的全要素分解模型,测度了1994～2007年辽宁省产业用水变化驱动的经济增长效应、产业结构效应与用水强度效应,计算了各种效应对用水变化的贡献率,并对各种效应进行了时间分异分析;运用全要素分解模型测度了1994～2007年辽宁省14个地级市产业用水变化驱动的三种效应,结合ISODATA聚类模型对各种效应进行空间聚类,进而对各种效应进行空间分异分析。研究结果表明,辽宁省产业用水变化是由经济增长的稳定作用、结构变动的冲击作用和技术进步的动力作用共同决定的。该结论对于正确理解辽宁省产业用水变化与经济发展之间的关系具有一定的参考价值。

Water shortage,especially in Liaoning province,has become the major bottle-neck for the regeneration of major old industrial bases in China.The total-factor decomposition model was constructed in this paper to measure the economic growth effect,industrial construction effect and water utilization intensity effect of driving mechanism for water utilization change in Liaoning Province from 1994 to 2007.The contribution ratio of each effect on water utilization change was calculated,and the temporal differences of these effects were analyzed.The total-factor decomposition model was also applied to measure the three kinds of effect of 14 cities in Liaoning for the period 1994-2007,and combining the ISODATA cluster model to cluster the effect in space,the spatial difference of effects was carried out.The results showed that：economic growth increased the amount of water and water utilization intensity,while industrial construction decreased water utilization.The results of this paper have significance for exactly understanding the relation of water utilization and economic development,and also has a certain reference significance for the regulation of industrial policies and sustainable development.