中国虚拟水战略区划研究

Regionalization of virtual water strategy in China

为探究我国不同区域虚拟水研究和实践的发展方向,以国内31个省级行政区为研究单元,运用指标体系评价方法和列联表互斥的矩阵分类方法进行了我国虚拟水战略区划研究。结果表明:①依据水资源禀赋指数可以将全国划分为虚拟水输出地域、虚拟水输入地域和虚拟水平衡地域3个一级区划单元;其中,虚拟水输出地域的发展方向是提高水密集型工农业产品的商品率,虚拟水输入地域则应着手准备缩减水密集型产业,而虚拟水平衡地域则不宜进行大规模的虚拟水战略实践。②依据农产品贸易指数和非农水资源需求压力指数,将全国细分为典型输入(出)区、内部优化区、成长输入(出)区、复合型区、潜在输入(出)区和现实输入(出)区共12个二级区划单元,并指出了各二级区的产业发展方向。

In order to probe into each region＇s virtual water research and practice in China,the quantitative evaluation of indicator system method and matrix categories of mutually exclusive method were conducted to classify China＇s provincial regions.First,three senior function regional types were divided,namely,virtual water import region（13 provinces）,virtual water output region（9 provinces）and virtual water equilibrium region（9 provinces）according to the index of water resource gift,which was built up by three indicators of multi-year average precipitation,per capita water resources and runoff.Second,12 secondary function regions were identified according to combinations of the various indexes of agricultural product trade which was constructed by three indicators of proportion of agricultural output,per capita food production and per capita meat production and non-agricultural water resource demand pressure index which was constructed by four indicators of urbanization rate,proportion of urban domestic water utilization,proportion of urban industrial water utilization and proportion of industrial output.The 12 secondary function regions are typical virtual water import（output）area,inner optimization area,growing virtual water import（output）area,composite type area,potential virtual water import（output）area and reality virtual water import（output）area.Third,the authors pointed out that it should raise the commodity rate of water-intensive industrial and agricultural products in the virtual water import regions,and reduce water-intensive industrial step by step in the virtual water output regions.However in the virtual water equilibrium regions,it is not suitable to adopt virtual water strategy.Furthermore,some suggestions were put forward on the orientation of water-density industrial development and virtual water studies in each secondary region.