中国大陆入境台胞游客时空分布格局及其变化

Research on temporal and spatial distribution pattern of Taiwan tourists and its evolution in China's Mainland

随着海峡两岸联系的不断加强,入境台胞游客市场对中国大陆入境旅游市场的影响与日俱增,因此对入境台胞游客市场的研究具有重要意义。收集1988～2008年相关数据,采用地理分析手段和GIS技术方法对中国大陆入境台胞游客数量年内、年际分布和空间格局变化及其原因进行分析。结果表明,中国大陆入境台胞游客数量发展呈波浪形递增趋势,旅游发展符合一般的经济发展周期,年内变化幅度总体较小,高峰(旺季)主要是在2月、4月、7月、10月,形成明显的"双M"形曲线。空间分布东部高、西部低,呈"W"形,并有向"U"形转变的趋势,而且游客数量地理集中程度呈现不断提高、省际差异逐步扩大,并向东部进一步集中的趋势。

The inbound tourism market in China's Mainland can be divided into two parts.One is overseas Chinese and compatriots from Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan;the other is foreigners（including the overseas Chinese who have foreign nationalities）.With the strengthening communication across the Taiwan strait,Taiwan tourists will play an increasingly important role in China's Mainland tourism market.The author analyses the data of tourism market（1998~2008）of different provinces（cities,districts）in China's Mainland,using the methods of geographic analysis,indexes of seasonal intensity,seasonal variation,geographic concentration,dynamical degree,and GIS to analyse the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of tourists and its evolution.（1）Viewing from time dimension,the change in the number of tourists from Taiwan Island to the mainland during the year is not obvious.The peak seasons are mainly February,April,July,and October,and the off-peak seasons are mainly January,March,June,September,December and other months.The yearly change can be described as a clear ＂double M＂ shaped curve,and this ＂Double M＂ shaped curve become more and more obvious over time（except the year 2003）.The number of tourists from Taiwan to China's Mainland is increasing in a wave-shape type,and its share number of inbound tourists in China's Mainland increased from 1.38% in 1988 to 3.37% in 2008.Tourism development is in line with general economic development cycle,and there are Kitchin cycle,Juglar cycle,and Kuznets cycle.（2）Viewing from the spatial distribution,the overall number of tourists from Taiwan was mainly concentrated in the east instead of the middle and west China,covering 60%~70%.Spatial patterns characterized by the ＂W＂-shaped type tended to be the ＂U＂-shaped type.The geographic concentration of tourists from Taiwan is consolidated,and the difference among the provinces is gradually expanding,and the east-oriented trend remains.Provinces with the changing rate in the number of tourists from Taiwan above the national average（20.01%）are mainly in the eastern coastal zone,northeast region,central region and Tibet.Tibet had the maximum changing rate,which is 270.66%.This study is practical and significant in guiding and promoting the tourism development between Taiwan and China's Mainland,especially in tourism planning,tourism products upgrading tourism marketing and tourism management services,and so on.