城市产业结构优化的纵向测度与横向诊断模型及应用——以北京市为例

Spatio-temporal assessment models and their application to urban industrial restructuring:A case study of Beijing city

优化、高效的城市产业结构是城市经济社会全面发展的必备条件。本文基于数据包络分析模型构建包括10个投入指标、4个产出指标的城市产业结构优化纵向测度指标体系,基于因子分析模型构建由1个目标层、4个标准层和16个指标层构成的城市产业结构优化横向诊断指标体系,并以北京市为例进行实证分析,旨在为城市产业结构优化升级、经济发展方式转变提供科学指导。研究表明:①改革开放30年来,北京市产业结构优化程度一直处于较高水平,仅1991、2004年出现资源过度投入而规模收益递减现象,1987、1995、1996年出现资源有效利用不足而规模收益递增现象;②产业效率、产业效益、产业科技、产业优势是影响北京市各区县产业结构优化程度的主要因子;③由于产业效率水平高且对产业结构优化的贡献大,北京市中心城区和近郊区的整体产业结构优化程度明显高于远郊区县;④北京市各区县在产业效率、产业效益、产业科技、产业优势等分项指标各具优劣,应通过差异化发展促进各区县乃至城市的产业结构优化升级。

It is a prerequisite to keep an optimal and efficient industrial structure for urban socio-economic development.In order to put forward scientific advice for upgrading the industrial structure and changing the way the economy grows,this paper constructs spatio-temporal assessment models for urban industrial restructuring,basing on Data Envelopment Analysis model and Factor Analysis model to build corresponding indicator systems.Then taking Beijing city as an example for empirical analysis,the results can be concluded as follows.Firstly,in the past 30 years since China＇s reform and opening-up in 1978,Beijing＇s industrial structure is basically at a relatively high level,excepting the years of 1991 and 2004,which over-use resources and decrease returns to scale,and the years of 1987,1995 and 1996,which use resources ineffectively and increase returns to scale.Secondly,level of industrial efficiency,industrial benefit,industrial science and technology,and industrial comparative advantage are main factors determining industrial structure optimization of the 18 districts and counties in Beijing.Thirdly,owing to high level in industrial efficiency as well as its great contribution rate,industrial structure optimization in center regions and suburbs of Beijing is higher than that in outer suburban districts.Finally,it is quite discrepant in the comparative advantages of the four factors in the 18 districts and counties in Beijing,so it is imperative to take differentiable development paths to promote urban industrial restructuring.