中国财政政策非线性稳定效应:理论和证据

The Non-linear Stable Effects of China's Fiscal Policies:A Theory and the Evidence

本文考察了中国财政政策的非线性稳定效应并对其形成的可能机制进行了检验。基于现有文献和中国的现实,本文创造性地识别了可能会导致中国财政政策非线性或非凯恩斯效应的历史时期。接着本文构造了1978～2004年度和1998～2004年度两个面板数据集,前者很好地完成了对生成财政政策非线性或非凯恩斯效应的预期机制的检验并发现了非凯恩斯效应的证据;后者部分证实了劳动市场观点的假说,但并不能排除预期观点在生成非凯恩斯效应方面所起到的重要作用。最后,本文针对性地给出了一些具体的应付宏观经济不稳定的政策建议。

In this paper, we have investigated the non-linear stable effects of China's fiscal policy and tested out the possible mechanism that they have shaped.Founded on the existing literature and the reality of China, we have, for the first time, identified the historical periods in which, possibly, the non-linear or non-Key-nesian effects of China's fiscal policy occurred.Then, we have constructed two panel data sets, the first be-ing for the period of 1978～2004 and the second being for 1998～2004.By the first set, we have completed the test on the expectation mechanism of the non-linear or non-Keynesian effects and discover evidences for non-Keynesian effects.By the second set, we have verified the hypothesis about the labor market view, but the important role of the expectation view in producing the non-Keynesian effects cannot be excluded.Finally, we have, in view of the existing situation, offered some concrete suggestions about the policies for dealing with the instability of the macro economy.