黑河莺落峡站径流变化的影响因素分析

The Study on Affecting Factors of Runoff Changes at Yingluoxia Station of Heihe River

以黑河干流出山口径流控制站莺落峡水文站1960-2004年45年的径流序列为基础数据,采用相关分析、交叉谱分析、统计规律分析、降水—径流双累积曲线法等研究了全球变化、太阳黑子活动、ENSO循环和下垫面变化对黑河干流出山径流变化的影响。结果表明:①全球变化对莺落峡站径流变化影响较大;②莺落峡站年径流与太阳黑子相对数两序列在2年和3.3年两个振动周期上存在显著的相关关系,但在这两个存在显著相关关系的振动周期上太阳黑子相对数的周期波动变化都落后于莺落峡站年径流的周期波动变化;③ENSO循环对莺落峡站年径流变化有一定的影响,但是,ElNino事件和LaNina事件对莺落峡站年径流的影响时间持续较短,对事件发生当年的径流变化影响较大,对事件发生次年的径流变化影响较小;④流域下垫面变化对莺落峡站年径流量的变化影响较小。

Based on the runoff data covering 45 years at Yingluoxia Station at the main stream of the Heihe River,this paper studied the global change,sunspot activity,ENSO cycle and underlying surface variation affecting the change of mountainous runoff at the main stream of the Heihe River using correlation analysis,cross-spectrum analysis,statistical law analysis and precipitation-runoff double mass analysis. The results showed that：（1） The global change had significant influence on the runoff of Yingluoxia Station （2） The runoff of Yingluoxia Station and the number of sunspots were closely related with the vibration periods of 2 and 3.3 years,but vibration period change of the number of sunspots lagged behind the runoff of Yingluoxia Station （3） The ENSO cycle had some influence on the runoff of Yingluoxia Station,while the influence of El Nino and La Nina sustained shortly,which could only exert some effect on the runoff of Yingluoxia Station when they occurred obviously,but they affected the next year＇s runoff weakly （4） The underlying surface variation had a weak influence on the runoff of Yingluoxia Station.