北京产业结构演变与发展阶段的灰色关联判断

A Grey Correlational Analysis on Industrial Structure Changes and Industrialization Processes in Beijing Region

基于赛尔奎因—钱纳里标准模式和库兹涅茨模式,采用灰色关联综合判断方法对1978-2005年北京地区发展阶段演进进行了判断分析。灰色关联综合判断结果显示,1978-1984年前后北京处于工业化中期的第一阶段;1985年前后-1993年前后处于工业化中期的第二阶段;从1994年前后-2005年处于工业化后期,并在2001年后开始显现出发达经济的特征。这一结论与这一时期北京市经济发展的实际状态是相符的,也是与其他相关研究所得出的结论一致的。通过采用灰色关联综合判断方法,不仅避免了采用直接比较研究地区人均收入水平和产业结构等指标与赛尔奎因-钱纳里标准模式和库兹涅茨模式中的相关指标来判断其发展阶段的不确定性以及可能出现判断结论的偏差过大问题,而且突破了采用赛尔奎因-钱纳里标准模式和库兹涅茨模式判断地区发展阶段演进时明显地有赖于研究判断者的经验和主观认识的困境,降低了判断的难度,提高了判断的科学性、客观性和可靠性。

On the basis of Chenery-Syrquin＇s standard patterns of development and Kuznets＇s national pattern of development based on per capita GDP and three industrial structures,by using grey correlational analysis method,this paper discusses the industrialization processes in Beijing region during the period of 1978-2005. The study results show during the period：1） from 1978 to about 1984 the industrialization level in Beijing region was in the early half of middle stage of industrialization 2） from about 1985 to about 1993 it was in the late half of middle stage of industrialization 3） from about 1994 onward it was in the late industrialization stage and 4） from 2001 on it has been characterized by a developed economy. The determination results are not only corresponding to the realistic development situations in Beijing region during the same periods,but also being validated by other relevant studies from different researches. This research also shows,on one hand,grey correlational analysis method demonstrates its advantages over the conventional direct comparison based on the per capita GDP and three industrial structures in the studied region and the Chenery-Syrquin＇s standard pattern of development or Kuznets＇s national pattern of development,and makes the determination results more reliable,acceptable and cogent. On the other hand,different from the conventional direct comparison method,the grey correlational analysis will make the determination almost not depend mainly on the judgement maker＇s own experience,knowledge accumulation and even subjective consciousness. On all accounts,the determination by grey correlational analysis method is easier than that by the conventional direct comparison,and this method minimizes the disadvantages,and makes the determination process and results more scientific,objective,accurate and reliable.