城市住房市场差异与房价连锁反应——以35个大中城市为例

Difference among housing markets and ripple effect of house price:empirical study of 35 metropolitans

将35个城市按所在地理位置,划分为华东、中部、西部、东北、华北和华南6个地区,建立城市和全国的房价缩约方程,分析人均可支配收入、建设成本、金融机构法定贷款利率和广义货币供应量对城市或全国平均住房价格的影响.以各城市房价与全国平均房价的比值为因变量,构建面板协整和误差修正模型.长期协整关系的成立以及误差修正模型的系数差异,表明我国各地区之间存在弱的房价连锁反应现象:在长期,除华东地区外各地区房价与全国平均房价的比值没有随时间增长的趋势,具有回复到稳定均衡关系的倾向;而在短期,各地区房价变化对全国性因素变动有不同反应.华东地区的房价对全国收入、利率变化有更快的反应.

According to the geography location,35 metropolitans were divided into six regions：East,Center,West,Northeast,North and South.A reduced-form model of house price was constructed,in which the aggregated house price was determined by the governable income per capita,construction cost,lending rate and money supply.Based on the house price model in cities and the nation,a panel data cointegration and error correction model was constructed by setting the ratio of house price in each city to average level of the whole country as the dependent variable.The existence of long-run cointegration and the difference of coefficients in the error correction model shows that there is actually weak ripple effect among regions in China.That is,the ratio of house price in each region except the East to the average of the whole country has no tendency in the long-run,but the house price in each region has different response to the changes of the national factors.Compared to other regions,the house price in east of China has sooner response to the changes of income and rate.