基于GM(0,N)灰色系统的公路运输量预测方法

A Forecasting Method of Road Freight Volume Based on GM(0,N)

GM(0,N)模型适合于原始数据缺乏下的具有多个相关因素的系统特征变量预测.研究了GM(0,N)模型用于客运量预测的总体思路,建立了公路运输量的多因素灰色预测模型,并研究了系统模型中相关因素变量的确定方法、模型精度的检验方法和进行长期预测的方法与步骤.最后通过实例计算,对GM(0,N)与GM(1,1)模型的预测精度进行了检验和对比分析,结果表明,前者比后者具有更高的预测精度和可靠性.

GM（0,N） model is adapt to forecasting of the systematic characteristic variable which has many related factors under conditions of being short of original data. This paper builds a multifactor grey forecasting model of road freight volume based on GM（0, N） and investigates the confirming method of related factors variables in systematic model, verifying check method of model precision, the method and procedure of long-term forecasting. Finally, through an example calculation, the au- thor conducts verifying check and comparing analysis on forecast precision of model GM（0, N） and GM（1,1）. The final result shows that the former has more forecast precision and reliability than the later.