城市化与第三产业发展:基于湖南的实证分析

The Relationship between Urbanization and Tertiary Industry——An Empirical Analysis Based on Hunan Province

城市化通过劳动力转移,促进产业集聚和产业扩张,既有利于专业分工的深化和服务业发展,又能提高劳动力吸纳能力。通过建立向量自回归模型(VAR),运用动态计量方法对湖南省城市化与第三产业之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明第三产业产值比重长期内对城市化具有显著促进作用,但城市化对第三产业产值比重影响却比较小;城市化是第三产业就业比重提高的原因,反之则不成立。由此提出相关政策建议。

Urbanization promotes industrial agglomeration and industrial expansion through the transformation of labor forces, which is in favor of the deepening of division of labor and the ability of absorbing rural laborer. A dynamic econometric analytical technique based on VAR model is used to analyze the relationship between urbanization and tertiary industry of Hunan province. The study results show percentage of tertiary industry product value plays a significantly positive role on urbanization in the long run. However, urbanization plays a weak positive role on percentage of tertiary industry product value. Urbanization is a reason of the improvement of the percentage of tertiary industrial employment, but the reverse is not true. In view of the above, several relative policy proposals are put forward.