基于非线性时间序列分析的短时交通流特性分析

Analysis on Short-Term Traffic Flow Characteristics Based on Nonlinear Time Series Analysis

利用非线性时间序列分析方法对从时间一维角度出发对短时交通流的特性进行定性、定量分析。首先简要介绍了递归图和定量递归分析方法,以1min为间隔的实测交通流量数据为例,选取1d中不同的4部分,用递归图从定性方面可视化其动力学特性,然后用定量递归分析得到各部分的量化特征值,并对结果做出分析。结果表明短时交通流时间序列具有非线性、非平稳的特性,在不同的时段内分别具有随机性、混沌性和确定性。这一研究结果对短时交通流的预测具有一定的理论价值和实际意义。

The qualitative and quantitative analysis of short-term traffic flow characteristics are made, which is based on nonlinear time series analysis in time dimension. At first, recurrence plot and recurrence quantification analysis are briefly introduced ; the dynamic characteristics of field traffic flow is visualized by the qualitative analysis of recurrence plot, which takes 1 -minute interval data of filed traffic flow as example and selects four different parts of one day. And then the quantita- tive values of each part are obtained by utilizing the recurrence quantification analysis; furthermore, the recurrence varia- bles are analyzed. The result indicates that short-term traffic flow is non-linear and non-stationary and shows randomness, chaos and uncertainty at different periods, which would be valuable in theoretical and practical application of short-term traffic flow forecast.