南水北调东线工程运行风险分析

Operating risk analysis on the east route of South-North Water Diversion Project

将南水北调东线工程分解为提水、输水和蓄水三大系统,结合层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价法(FCT)建立了各系统工程运行风险因子识别体系和评价结构模型.通过对东线一期工程运行风险的定量计算,实现了工程各系统运行风险等级划分,进而根据风险分析结果给出相应的降低风险的控制措施和对策,为南水北调东线一期工程安全运行管理提供有益参考.

This paper divides the east route of the South-North Water Diversion Project into three systems： the water pumping system, the water conveyance system and the water storage system. For each system, the operating risk identification and evaluation models are established by means of analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and fuzzy consisteney theorem （FCT） methodologies. Based on the qualitative and quantitative assessment results of the project, the operating risk grades are ranked for each system, and appropriate measures and strategies are given correspondingly to decrease the operating risk, which can be used as beneficial reference to the management of this water diversion project.