金融危机对中国出口贸易影响的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Influence of Financial Crisis to Trade of China

本文通过对金融危机影响后国内外经济形势的分析,结合海关统计数据,运用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,从贸易方式、贸易区域、贸易产品三个方面就金融危机对中国出口贸易产生的影响进行实证检验,并通过对外贸与经济增长的长期关系进行协整检验和chow检验,发现中国的出口贸易与经济增长受金融危机影响的程度。在此基础上,提出中国出口贸易中需要关注的一些问题以及在国际经济危机背景下促进出口贸易持续发展的对策建议。

According to the domestic and foreign economic situation analysis and customs statisti- cal data by the end of June, 2009, this paper empirically analyzes the effect of financial crisis on export trade of China from three aspects of trade modes, trade regions and trade goods by way of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. And then, through cointegration test and chow test to analyze the long term relations between foreign trade and economic growth, the paper reveals the ex- tent financial crisis influencing export trade and economic growth of China. On the basis of above, the paper proposes some suggestions for keeping the sustainable development of trade of China under the background of economic crisis.