中国经济周期的国际协同性与群体差异性：1960-2007

International Synchronization and Group Diversity of Business Cycle of China:1960-2007

经济周期国际协同是中国对外开放过程中的重要经济现象。本文考察了1960-2007年间中国与27个主要贸易伙伴国经济周期协同性的发展变化,发现中国与发展中国家,尤其与亚洲国家周期协同性在增强,而与发达国家周期协同性在减弱。协同性指标和Granger检验进一步证实中国与样本国经济周期协同性具有群体差异性特征,聚类分析可以把27个样本国划分为主动高协同亚洲国家、被动高协同发展中国家、中协同发达国家、低协同发达国家等四个特征明显的类别。

International synchronization of business cycles is an important economic phenomenon in the process of opening to the outside world in China. This paper examines the dynamic process of international synchronization of business cycle of China with 27 countries from 1960 to 2007, and finds that business cycle synchronization between China and developing countries has experi- enced a growing process, while that between China and developed countries has been definitely dampened. Comovement index and Granger test further prove that synchronization of business cycles between China and other countries has group diversity, and cluster analysis can classify 27 sample countries into four groups, including active developing countries with high synchronization, passive developing countries with high synchronization, developed countries with medium synchronization and developed countries with low synchronization.