我国城市间客运交通能源消耗趋势的分解

Decomposition Analysis of Intercity Passenger Transportation Energy Consumption in China

随着我国城镇化水平不断提高,城市作为重要的交通网络节点,其衔接交通运输线路、产生和承担客货流转换的功能日益显著。定量地探讨城市间客运交通能源消费变化的影响因素对于我国未来城市间客运交通能源需求的研究及温室气体减排具有重要意义。本文采用终端能源需求MAED模型,对我国城市间客运交通能耗的历史基期数据进行处理,同时对未来能耗进行预测,在形成ASIF结构的数据基础上,利用对数平均迪氏指数法(Logarithmic Mean Index,LMDI)对城市间客运交通能耗的活动效应、结构效应和强度效应进行分解分析。结果表明,从历史数据来看,我国"十五"期间城市间客运交通能耗的快速增加同时取决于客运周转量的增加、客运交通模式和能耗强度的转变,若延续这一发展趋势,我国中长期城市间客运交通模式将快速增长。未来城市间轨道交通网络的发展和高效利用及交通节能减排政策的落实将是促进能源消耗增速降低的可能选择。

As important transport network nodes and convergence of transport routes, the cities＇ funetion of passenger and freight flow generation and transportation increasingly become noteble. Exploring inter-city passenger transport energy, consumption and the key factors impacting China＇ s future inter-city passenger transport energy demand quantitatively is of great significance for transport energy research and greenhouse gas emissions. In this article, the final energy demand model MAED was conducted to estimate inter-city passenger transport energy consumption based on historical data. At the same time, the future energy consumption was projected. Based on the ASIF data structure, the decomposition analysis method and logarithmic mean Divisia index method （LMDI） were used to analyze inter-city passenger transport activity effect, structural effect and intensity effect. The results show that, during the tenth Five Year period, China＇ s rapid inter-city passenger transport energy increasingly, depends on rapid increase in passenger turnover, passenger traffic patterns change, as well as energy intensity. The development and efficient utilization of rail transport network and the fulfillment of energy conservation and greenhouse gas mitigation policy are potential options for the medium and long term inter-city passenger transport energy consumption reduction.