中国省际技术进步、技术效率与区域能源需求

Technological Progress,Technical Efficiency and Regional Energy Demand of China's Provinces

构建了技术进步、技术效率与区域能源需求的分析框架,采用Malmquist指数估算1995-2007年中国29个省(直辖市、自治区)的全要素生产率(TFP)增长,并将其分解为技术进步指数和效率变化指数。在此基础上,实证分析了技术进步、技术效率对区域能源需求的影响,并考察了能源相对价格、人力资本和固定资本存量等因素,进行技术进步、技术效率对能源需求影响的实证检验,为我国制定合理的区域节能政策提供理论依据。本文的研究结果表明,技术进步、技术效率对能源需求的影响表现出明显的地区差异:技术效率对东部和中部地区的能源需求有显著负影响;技术进步只对东部地区的能源需求有显著负影响;技术进步、技术效率对西部地区的能源需求均没有显著影响。各个地区不同的经济基础、能源资源禀赋和对外开放度可能是造成该现象的主要原因。在上述结论基础上,论文对中国区域技术进步与节能提出了相应的政策建议。

This article constructed a framework to analyze the relations between the technological progress, the technical efficiency and regional energy demand. Applying DEA, the article measures the technological progress, the technical efficiency ＆ Mahnquist productivity indexes in 29 provinces （municipalities and autonomous regions） based on the province level panel data in China from 1995 to 2007. Research in this article is helpful for understanding the characteristics of the effect of the teclmological progress, the technical efficiency on regional energy demand in China and creating effective policies on energy conservation. It also empirically testified the relations between the technological progress, the technical efficiency and the regional energy demand in China based on panel model. The factors impacting energy consumption include technological progress, and technical efficiency, energy price, human capital and fixed capital stock. The effect of the technological advances on energy demand takes on a dual nature, so research on the effect of the technological advances on regional energy demand can provide a theoretical basis for the development of scientifically regional energy policy. This article also finds that the relationships between the technological progress, the technical efficiency and energy demand take on different patterns in different regions. Technical efficiency has significantly negative effects on the energy demand in east and central regions. Technological progress has significantly negative effects on the energy demand only in east regions. But technological progress and tecimical efficiency have no significant impact on the energy demand in west regions. Different economic base, energy resource endowments and degree of opening to the outside world in different regions may be the main reasons of the phenomena. The article puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations in relation to technological progress and regional energy conservation in China on the basis of the above findings.