水利工程合理低价评标风险决策模型研究

Research on Risk Decision Model for Reasonable Low Price Bid Evaluation in Water Conservancy Engineering

针对水利工程合理低价评标方法的不足,基于全生命周期理论分析了水利工程建设项目整个建设过程的风险,提出了理想投标人应具备的风险管理对策(IBRMM),构建了水利工程合理低价评标的指标体系,理论上有效地解决了前期风险的后果影响并控制了风险隐患。在此基础上又构建了合理低价评标风险决策模型,采用随机模拟与优化计算解决了主观确定权重问题。结果表明,该模型更具客观性,控制风险能力强,可供推广应用。

According to the disadvantages of the methods of current reasonable low price bid evaluation, risk existing in the water conservancy project construction process is analyzed by using the whole life cycle theory. Meanwhile, ideal bidders risk management measures is proposed and an index system for reasonable low price bid evaluation is established. It partly solves the effect of consequence caused by risks in the early stages of the project and effectively controls the po- tential risk. Finally, a risk decision model of reasonable low price bid evaluation is established. Stochastic simulation and optimization calculation is used to solve the problem of determination of model weight subjectively. The result shows that the model is more objective and has strong abilities for controlling risks, which can be applied to the similar project.