中产阶层的定量界定与中国收入分配格局的演变趋势

The Quantitative Definition of the Middle Class and the Evolution Trends in China’s Pattern of Income Distribution

中产阶层的概念,在经济学收入分配问题的讨论中被广泛使用,但确几乎是最为模棱两可的学术术语,既没有清晰的定义,更没有准确的定量界定。本文参考国际对比的恩格尔系数与生活水平的对应关系、结合中国的消费支出特征,明确界定出中国中产阶层的上限和下限,划分出上产、中产、下产三个阶层;在此基础上,以2003-2007年测度数据为依据,预测出中国中产阶层人口比重将在2018年与下产阶层持平;进而,以3000元人民币为组距,刻画出中国居民2000-2007年收入分配格局,根据其变化特征,总结出中国居民收入分配格局的演变趋势,并提出扩大中产阶层的政策建议。

The concept of the middle class in economics is widely used in the discussion of income distribution, but is almost certainly the most ambiguous of the academic terms, neither clearly defined, nor precise quantitative definition. Referred to international comparisons between the Engel coeffieient and the standard of living, combining China＇s consumer spending characteristics, this paper defines the upper and lower limits of Chinese middle class definitely and divides higher class, middle-class and lower class. I^ased on the above definition, with the help of the data in 2003-2007, we forecast that the Chinese middle class populatioll will be the same proportion with the lower class in 2018. And then taking 3,000 RMB as the group distance, we carves Chinese residents distribution pattern of income for the years 2000-2007. What＇s more, according to its variation, we sum the trends of evolution of China＇s income distribution pattern, and propose policy recommendations for expanding the middle class.