国内需求、贸易与就业——基于国民经济核算角度的分析

Domestic Demand,Trade and Employment——Based on the Analysis of National Economic Accounting

本文利用1997-2006年中国工业部门面板数据,从国际收支角度出发,研究了国内就业与贸易及国内需求的关系,结果表明贸易对劳动力就业具有非常显著的影响,同时国内需求的扩张也会促进就业增加。研究支持了相关文献中出口会提高就业的假说。当加入考虑工业行业工资变动、技术进步资本积累等因素时,贸易和国内需求对就业的影响更为多元化和复杂化,最终就业不仅依赖于出口扩展,同时也依赖于国内对非贸易品需求的扩大,如国内投资、教育投入等。

Based the panel data of the industrial sectors in china from 1997-2006,we research the relation between the domestic employment, trade and the domestic demand through the aspect of international income and expenses. The results shows that trade has much significantly influence on employment, and meanwhile the expansion of domestic demand will also improve the employment. This research supports the hypothesis that export can improve the employment in relevance articles. When we consider some factors like wage alteration in industry, technology improvement and capital accumulation, the influence of trade and domestic demand to employment will be various and complication. The final employment is not only dependent on the expansion of trade, but also dependent on the expansion of the non-trade goods like domestic investment, educational input and etc.