中国城镇居民旅游消费实证分析

An Empirical Study of the Urban Residents Tourism Consumption in China

对我国城镇居民旅游消费需求的研究有助于刺激居民消费,拉动内需,进而带动经济增长。一般对居民旅游消费行为的数量分析,仅限于静态层次,不能反映变量间随时间变化的动态数量关系。本文建立了我国城镇居民旅游消费与收入间的变参数模型,并利用EG两步法检验了变量间的变协整关系,以动态机制解读了我国城镇居民旅游消费状况,得出以下主要结论:1994-2006年我国城镇居民边际旅游消费倾向呈现先上升后下降的趋势,呈现一个动态变化的过程;城镇居民收入与旅游消费之间存在着均衡比例变化的变协整关系。

To research the urban residents tourism consumption need stimulates the residents tourism consumption and then promotes the economic growth.. In general, the quantity analysis of the residents tourism consume behavior limits at the static state , and cannot reflect the dynamic quantity relation with time varying. This text makes use of the state space model to build up the time varying parameter model between the residents tourism consumption and income, and to test the varying co-integration among the variables making use of the E-G way .It explains the residents tourism consumption situation in the dynamic mechanism in recent years, and gets main conclusions as follows： from 1994 to 2006, the marginal propensity of tourism consumption of the urban residents presents the trend of rising first and then descending behind and the process of a dynamic evolvement; there is the varying co-integration on the relation of the income and the tourism consumption.