基于Agent的预测支持系统的设计

Design of Multi Agent Based Forecasting Support System

】ａｇｅｎｔ是在一定环境下能独立自主运行的实体，它具有自己的知识、目标和能力．多ａ－ｇｅｎｔ系统（Ｍｕｌｔｉ－ＡｇｅｎｔＳｙｓｔｅｍ）中的ａｇｅｎｔ都服务于同一个目标，各个ａｇｅｎｔ相互磋商与合作，以提高完成任务的效率和解决问题的能力．本文提出利用多ａｇｅｎｔ系统设计预测支持系统，是将每一种定性或定量的预测方法都设计成一个预测ａｇｅｎｔ，各个预测ａｇｅｎｔ都有预测求解方法、知识处理及同其它ａｇｅｎｔ通讯合作的能力．随着系统的运行，各个ａｇｅｎｔ不断地学习以提高自己的能力。

Agent is an autonomous entity.It has the knowledge,goal and capability.Agents in a multi agent system serve the same goal and an agent can cooperate with others to do work efficiently.This paper put forward that the forecasting support system can been designed as a multi agent system.Every qualitative and quantitative forecasting method is designed as an agent,which has the method of forecasting,the capability of knowledge processing and cooperating with other agents.As the system running,each agent improves its capability by learning and also improve the forecasting accuracy of the system.