基于多视角的PFI项目风险评估研究

Research on Risk Evaluation of PFI Projects Based on Multi-angle of View

PF(IPrivate Finance Initiative)是目前发达国家广泛推行的一种新的民营资本参与公共投资的项目建设管理模式。政府在确定PFI项目的时候,需要考虑众多因素,从不同角度客观论证项目的可行性。这其中,项目的风险是PFI项目决策时必须考虑的问题。PFI项目相对于传统公共项目而言,风险体系的建立、风险评估的方法都会有其特殊性。同样的风险对于不同的主体会产生不同的影响。本文建立了PFI项目的风险评估指标体系,并且在利益相关者分析的基础上,综合三大主要利益相关者——政府公共部门、SPC、使用者(公众)的群体意见,运用基于格栅获取的模糊Borda数方法实现了PFI项目风险的多视角评估。对多个备选PFI项目中进行多视角评估,可实现项目决策的优先排序;对单一项目进行多视角评估,可反映项目的风险水平;最后通过算例验证该方法的可行性、有效性和实用性。PFI模式在我国适逢良好的发展机遇,相关的理论研究正成为热点,风险管理就是其中的一大方面,对此所作的探讨是必须且有意义的。

PFI（Private Finance Initiative）refers to, presently prevailed in developed countries, a new kind of administrative pattern for project construction by private capital participating in public investments. Before the project of PFI is approved by government, they need to consider many factors from different viewpoints to demonstrate it feasibility objectively. Among of these factors, the risk of project must be considered when they judge PFI project. PFI projects, comparing with traditional public projects, have their own particularity on both establishment of risk system and method of risk assessment. Exactly the same risk may bring out entirely different effect to individual subjects. We present a risk evaluation indicators architecture. On the basis of analysis of project stakeholders, especially combined the group opinions of three main stakeholders： government, SPC, user （the public）, subsequently, we put forward a multi-viewpoints approach by means of the fuzzy Borda number analytical method based on grid-get. If the object to be evaluated consists of several proposed PFI project, the result of multiviewpoints evaluation can be used to rank the priority for decision-making. On the other hand, if the object contains only single PFI projects, however, the evaluation result reflects the risk level of the project. At last, we verify the feasibility, affeetivity and availability of the architecture through a case example, the result show that the approach is simple to use and applicable to various comprehensive evaluations. Nowadays, the pattern of PFI is in good conditions to develop, and relevant theory is becoming the hotspot to study, among of which the risk management is one of great aspect. Therefore, it is necessary and significant for us to discuss.