外汇资产、基础货币供应与货币内生性——基于央行资产负债表的分析

Foreign Exchange Assets,Monetary Base Supply and Endogenous Money:Analysis Based on the Balance Sheet of the People's Bank of China

2002年以来,人民币处于升值压力中,国际收支双顺差使得我国外汇资产迅速扩大,外汇占款成为我国基础货币投放最主要的渠道。文章基于央行资产负债表,通过定量研究方法分析了汇改前后基础货币的主要来源及其与基础货币变动的动态关系,结果发现:汇改后净国外资产增量变化成为基础货币增量变化唯一格兰杰因,国内信贷和发行票据作为对冲外汇资产增加、防止基础货币过快增长的手段均已失效,基础货币供应具有内生性,央行已不能通过控制基础货币数量来调控货币供应量。

Since 2002, under the pressure of RMB appreciation, foreign exchange assets have expanded rapidly due to the double surplus of China＇s balance of payments. Foreign exchange investment has been the main channel for the People＇s Bank of China to put monetary base on the market. Based on the balance sheet of the People＇s Bank of China, the paper applies a quantitative analysis to explore the main source of monetary base and its dynamic relationship with the changes of monetary base around RMB exchange rate reform. The results show that after RMB exchange rate reform, the incremental change of net foreign exchange assets is the only Granger cause of the one of monetary base. Domestic credit and bond issue taken as the means of offsetting the increase of net foreign assets to avoid the excessive augment of monetary base are invalid. The monetary base supply is endogenous, so the People＇s Bank of China has not been able to adjust the money supply through the control over monetary base.