甘肃省经济增长与环境压力关系动态变化的结构分解分析

Dynamic changes of the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressure in Gansu Province:A structural decomposition analysis

基于宏观环境经济学思想,建立了以污染物排放为表征的环境压力函数,并运用结构分解分析(SDA)模型,结合"修正后的Laspeyres方法",构建了用于分析和解释"经济增长-环境压力"关系动态变化的驱动因子及其影响程度的方法,并分析了1990—2005年甘肃省经济增长与环境压力之间时序关系的变化趋势以及各驱动因素对时序关系变化的影响程度.结果表明:研究期间,甘肃省由污染物排放所产生的环境压力主要是由经济增长过程中产生的废气和工业固体废弃物所致,且环境压力在后期呈现出较快的增长趋势;人口因素对甘肃省环境压力变化的影响不大,经济增长因素对环境压力增大具有明显的正向效应,而技术因素则相对表现出抑制效应,但不足以抵消经济增长带来的正向效应,且经济增长和技术因素对环境压力的影响程度视不同类型污染物而有所差异.

Based on the ideology of macro environmental economics,a function of environmental pressure represented by pollutant emission was built,and the relative importance of the driving factors in the dynamic changes of the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressure in Gansu Province in 1990-2005 was analyzed by using structural decomposition analysis（SDA）model combining with ＇refined Laspeyres＇ method.In the study period,the environmental pressure in the Province was mainly caused by the emission of waste gases and solids in the process of economic growth,and showed a rapid increasing trend at the late stage of the period.Population factor had less impact on the increase of this environmental pressure,while economic growth factor had obvious impact on it.Technological progress did mitigate,but could not offset the impact of economic growth factor,and the impacts of economic growth and technological factors on the environmental pressure differed with the kinds of pollutants.