成本预测磨光法的盈亏修正

THE PROFIT AND LOSS MODIFIED IN THE SMOOTHING METHOD OF COST FORECAST

利用盈亏修正的原理，对企业生产经营管理中的成本预测方法——磨光法进行了改进，提出了一种新的预测方法——盈亏修正的磨光法，它克服了磨光法存在的在端点插值偏差大的不足，并且使精度从Ｏ（ｈ２（ｋ－１）提高到Ｏ（ｈ４（ｋ－１））。该法简单易行，且结果好于磨光法及最小二乘法，可为企业的生产经营管理决策提供更为可靠的依据。

This paper improves the smoothing method of the cost forcast by the profit and loss modified theory.A new method of cost forecast is outlined.It overcomes the defects at the end points, and increases the precision of the smoothing method from O(h 2(k-1) to O(h 4(k-1) ) so that more reliable data can be provided for manager to make a decision than smoothing method and least squares theory.