基于乘法预测模型的装备维修器材消耗规律研究

STUDY ON EQUIPMENT MAINTENANCE MATERIAL CONSUMPTION LAW BASED ON MULTIPLICATIVE PREDICTION MODEL

为探索装备维修器材消耗规律、科学指导装备维修器材储备和供应,基于时间序列分析方法,构建了乘法预测模型,结合2005～2008年某装备保障的应用实例,对其维修器材消耗进行了预测研究.预测结果表明:预测值与历史真实数据接近,为现有装备消耗标准的完善和新装备消耗标准的制定提供了依据.

To explore consumption law of equipment maintenance material, and to guid reserve and serve issues, multiplicative prediction model was established based on time series analysis method （TSAM） and application cases of 2005 to 2008 years were studied. It is indicates that predictive values is approximate to history actual data, which providing reliance to the consumption standards perfection of current equipments and consumption standards constitution of novel equipments.