安徽省金融发展与经济增长:基于VAR和VEC模型的实证

Financial Development and Economic Growth in Anhui Province:An Empirical Study Based on VAR and VEC Model

安徽通过改革开放以来三十一年的发展,金融发展在一定程度上促进了经济的增长,相关实证分析显示:金融规模的扩张和股票市场的发展不同程度地促进了经济的增长,虽然股票市场的发展滞后到第七期对经济增长的贡献才超过了金融规模的扩张对经济增长的贡献,但其贡献度一直在增长,这表明,虽然金融规模的扩张对经济增长的贡献仍然较大,但是成立只有十几年的股票市场的发展对经济增长的贡献具有很大的潜力;而金融发展的效率对经济增长的贡献有限,且有些时期对经济增长呈负作用;保险市场的发展并没有表现出对经济增长的显著促进作用。基于实证分析的结果,为了安徽的金融发展更快更全面地促进经济增长,安徽股票市场的发展应摆在比传统金融中介发展更优先的位置,应继续加大企业从股票市场的融资力度,同时应大力发展多元化金融体系来提高金融发展效率,加快保险机构改革并提高保险业经营水平。

The financial development have promoted economic growth of Anhui in some extent since the reform and opening - up. The empirical study indicates that expansion of financial scale and development of securities market have promoted the economic growth of Anhui in varying degrees. The contribution of securities market＇s development to economic growth exceeds the contribution of financial scale＇s expansion to economic growth until the seventh period, but it is growing. It shows that the contribution of financial scales＇ expansion to economic growth is still bigger than securities market＇s development to economic growth, but securities market＇s development with less than twenty years is having huge potential. The efficiency of financial development contributes little to the economic growth and sometimes the contribution is negative. There is no pronounced evidence shows that the development of insurance market contributes to the economic growth. Based on the result of empirical analysis, to make the financial development promote the economic growth more quickly and comprehensively, Anhui should let the development of securities market be put the higher priority than the development of financial intermediaries, and vigorously develop diversified financial system to improve efficiency of financial development, continuously increase financing from the securities market, accelerate the reform of insurance institutions and enhance the operation level of insurance industry.