响应表面法在事故再现结果不确定性分析中的应用

Application of Response Surface Method to Uncertainty Analysis on Accident Reconstruction Results

针对复杂事故再现模型的响应难以用显式函数表示的问题,借助试验设计方法和响应表面法,将试验设计方法中拟合的全部仿真结果,用一个近似的等效响应函数来表示,然后利用这个响应函数和各物理参数的上下极限值,直接计算出仿真结果的取值范围。这就构成了事故再现模型为隐性表达式时的不确定性分析近似方法。最后将此方法应用到一个具有简单模型的事故案例中,并与不确定度评定基本方法和蒙特卡罗方法进行对比,结果十分接近。

Considering the problem that the responses of those complicated accident reconstruction models are hard to be expressed by explicit function,the experiment design method and response surface method will be used instead.Specifically,an approximate and equivalent response function will be used to express all simulation results fitted by experiment design method,and then utilizing this response function and upper and lower bounds of various physical parameters to calculate the range of simulation results.These form an approximate method of uncertainty analysis for the accident reconstruction model with implicit expression.Finally the method is applied to an accident case with simple model and the results obtained are very close to those with basic uncertainty analysis method and Monte Carlo method.