20年来大陆—香港关系及重大事件对两岸旅游互动的影响分析

THE IMPACT OF MAINLAND-HK RELATIONS AND IMPORTANT EVENTS ON INTERACTIVE TOURISM FLOWS IN RECENT 20 YEARS

1997年香港回归中国是其政体隶属关系的重大转变。依据1990—2007年的有关统计资料,选取入境客流量、环比增长率、占出境游客比率和占入境旅游比率4个指标,定量分析了回归前后7次重大事件及政策变化对旅游双向互动的影响。结果显示:1997年回归之前,香港隶属英国租界,经济发达出游率高,在旅游流互动中处于强势地位;1997年香港回归之后,随着大陆经济实力的不断增强,大陆入境香港旅游则成为旅游互动的核心,庞大的客流量和旅游购买力成为拉动香港经济发展的重要因素。1990—2007年,香港赴大陆旅游客流量由1 653.3万人次增加到7 794.9万人次,占大陆入境旅游比由60.2%下降至59.1%,比例变化不大;而大陆入境香港客流量由75.4万人次增加至1 548.7万人次,占香港入境旅游比由11%增长到55%,依赖性不断增强。

HK＇s return to China in 1997 is a significant change of its government belonging. Based on the relevant data from 1990 to 2007, taking inbound tourists, growth rate and the proportion of HK（mainland） visitors on the mainland （HK） to the number of HK （mainland） outbound （inbound）tourists as the indicators, the paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of seven important events on the tourism flows and reveals its evolutionary process. The result shows as follows. Prior to 1997, HK was a British colony, and it was in the powerful position because of its developed economy and high rate of residents＇ outbound tourism. After the reunification, the inbound tourists of HK from mainland become the nucleus of tourism flows followed by promotion of mainland economic power, the large number mainland tourists and their strong purchasing power are the most important factors of pulling HK＇s economy. From 1990 to 2007, the number of inbound tourists of mainland from HK has increased to 779 490 thousand from 16 533 thousand, and the proportion of HI（ visitors on mainland to the number of mainland inbound tourists has decreased to 59.1% from 60.2%. But the number of inbound tourists of HK from mainland has risen from 754 thousand to 15 487 thousand people, the proportion of mainland visitors on the HK to the number of ilK inbound tourists rises form 11% to 55%, which fully proves that HK＇s sense of identity towards Mainland has been improved, the degree of openness has been increased, the dependency has been strengthened.