区域金融发展与经济增长——基于广西与江苏的比较视角

Regional Financial Development and Economic Growth

通过对广西与江苏1978—2007年金融发展与经济增长的时间序列数据进行检验,表明两省金融发展与经济增长间存在协整关系,且两省的金融规模的扩大都能正向的促进经济的增长;长期因果关系表明:广西的金融发展属于"供给引导型",而江苏的金融发展属于"需求跟进型";而在短期,广西的金融发展与经济增长不存在明显的因果关系,而江苏的经济增长是金融规模指标的格兰杰原因,金融结构指标与经济增长间存在双向的因果关系。

By analyzing Jiangsu from1978 to 2007, the time series data of financial development and economic growth of Guangxi and it indicates that there is a cointegration relationship between financial develop- ment and economic growth of the two provinces, That the scale of financial indicators have a positive role for promoting the economic growth in the two provinces.That the long-term causal relationship shows that the fi- nancial development in Guangxi belong to supply--leading , while in Jiangsu Province, the financial devel- opment is demand--following.In the short term, there is no obvious cause and effect relationship between Guangxi＇s financial development and economic growth, and the Granger reason lies in between the Jiangsu＇s economic growth indicators and the financial scale, and between the financial structure and economic growth there exists a two-way causal relationship.